3M Co. expects the semiconductor shortage that has idled auto factories worldwide will last into 2022 and the company has doubled its previous estimate for the decline in new-vehicle production in this year’s second half.

The year-over-year drop will be 6%, up from 3%, Chief Financial Officer Monish Patolawala said Monday at a Morgan Stanley conference.

“Until you see the availability of chips go up and a steady supply of all of those chips, you’re going to have auto OEMs have to go through ups and downs to keep their factories running,” he said.

Automakers including Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG have been forced to curtail production due to the chip shortfall. Toyota last week trimmed its annual production forecast due to the constraint and the spread of coronavirus cases in southeast Asia. GM has said it expects the situation to worsen this year before improving in 2022, while VW’s chief executive has warned the shortages could last for years.

Patolawala said the chip issue is one of several supply-chain issues that, along with higher inflation, is likely to negatively affect the St. Paul, Minnesota-based manufacturer’s earnings per share this year. He said that will impact the company on the “high end” of the 65 cents per share to 80 cents per share range. In July, 3M forecast earnings per share of $9.70 to $10.10 for the full year.

3M shares rose 1.8% to $187.82 as of 10:58 a.m. in New York.